TCA - a failed investment plan, masquerading as a traffic model

1/31/08

To: letters@ocregister.com

Anyone close to TCA's OC toll road Plan / Model
knows, OC's toll roads were never about less-traffic.
Exactly the opposite.

OC toll roads were configured into South County's
once-open-spaces to fill it with housing. They did.
Job done.

Today: 18% of OC commuters (300,000) take toll roads,
versus 82% driving OC freeways = 1,812,000 commuters,
priced-off toll roads by TCA's Congestion-Pricing model.

Jamming us (82%) onto ailing freeway's we can't "fix"
thanks to TCA/Caltrans Non-Compete-Agreements.
Hobbling Caltrans and OCTA and "us," while we pay
for everything road-related thru highway taxes.

Toll-fare on the embattled 214-ext. thru San Onofre
State Park is estimated at $15 one-way (TCA numbers).
Gasoline, by end of summer, will reach $4.
In 5 years, experts suggest $10 a gallon.

In 5 years, the 241 toll could easily be $25 one-way.

Example: the 10-mile 91 toll lanes cost $10 one-way now.
"$1 a mile" (by those numbers, 241 would actually cost
$35 one-way).

In "real" hard-numbers TCA is failing financially
(worse than we know). The 73's been in financial
free-fall from Day-1.

It's private investment Bonds - junk.

TCA's 241 looks better on-paper, because its
revenue-requirement is set much lower than the 73's.

Note: If a toll road runs empty, it's losing - propped
up by OC real estate "Development Fees."

BUT Housing is Flat. Meaning - diminished
Development Fees 'not' coming in, while soaring gas
prices makes everyone rethink where and how
we'll commute tomorrow.

TCA toll roads are 'constructed' on dollars gleaned
from Private Bond sales. But today, Wall St. Bond
"Insurers" teeter on bankruptcy.

No Bond insurers, means no Bond sales, means
no TCA 'construction-bucks.'

Meanwhile, projected 241-extension construction
costs have ballooned to over a Billion Dollars and
heading higher.

With a $15-to-$25 toll fare, and gas soaring upwards
of $5, which road would you drive to Yorba Linda?
The 241, or the FREE-way?

For the sake of South County traffic, we MUST Fix-5-First.
Then - fix all of our local arterials. Because Toll Roads
are not where OC traffic is. And never will be.

TCA Toll Roads are the cause, not the solution to our
growing traffic tsunami.

As Groucho said, "Who ya'gonna believe - them, or
your own lying eyes?"

OC's the only County to ever bankrupt. We're also
the only County with a bankrupt (TCA) transportation
model.

Paving a 241 extension thru San Onofre solves nothing.